Baseload Power is a Myth: Even Intermittent Renewables Will Work
The myth that renewable energy cannot reliably meet base-load demand persists, bolstered by powerful vested interests and a lack of critical media scrutiny. Mark Diesendorf, Associate Professor in the Faculty of Science and Deputy Director of the Institute of Environmental Studies at UNSW, argues otherwise. Drawing on years of research and thousands of computer simulations, he paints a compelling picture of a future powered entirely by renewables—clean, safe, and surprisingly affordable.
The Stakes Are High
The stakes couldn’t be higher: the survival of modern civilization and the preservation of biodiversity depend on our ability to transition from fossil fuels—coal, oil, and gas—to sustainable energy sources within the coming decades. The good news? Renewable energy technologies and energy efficiency measures have advanced at an extraordinary pace over the past ten years. The challenge is no longer technical or economic—it is political.
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Advances in Renewable Energy
Today, a wide array of renewable energy solutions is commercially available on a large scale. These include energy-efficient buildings and appliances, solar hot water systems, onshore wind turbines, solar photovoltaic (PV) panels, and concentrated solar thermal (CST) power with thermal storage. Gas turbines fueled by renewable liquid and gaseous fuels further bolster the mix. Costs have plummeted, especially for solar PV, making these technologies increasingly accessible.
Global investment in renewable energy technologies reached a staggering US $269 billion in 2012, even amid the global financial crisis. Countries such as Denmark, Scotland, and Germany are leading the charge, setting ambitious targets for 100% renewable electricity and implementing policies to achieve them.
Overcoming the Barriers
The primary obstacle lies not in technology but in opposition from entrenched interests. The fossil fuel industry, a major source of greenhouse gas emissions, and proponents of nuclear power—a costly and hazardous alternative—have mounted fierce campaigns of denial. Their efforts echo the tactics of climate change deniers, often amplified by media outlets such as the Murdoch press. These campaigns recycle old myths, chief among them the notion that renewable energy cannot reliably meet base-load demand.
Debunking the Baseload Myth
Diesendorf’s research, conducted with colleagues Ben Elliston and Iain MacGill at UNSW, has decisively debunked this myth. Using actual hourly data from 2010 on electricity demand, wind, and solar power within the National Electricity Market (NEM), their simulations demonstrate that a mix of renewable energy technologies can achieve reliability equal to that of fossil-fuel systems—without the need for base-load power stations.
“The old myth was based on the incorrect assumption that base-load demand can only be supplied by base-load power stations, like coal in Australia or nuclear in France,” Diesendorf explains. Instead, their optimal mix includes 50-60% wind power, 15-20% solar PV, and 15-20% CST with 15 hours of thermal storage, complemented by existing hydro and gas turbines fueled by renewable gases or liquids. This combination reliably meets demand, even during challenging periods such as calm winter evenings following overcast days.
Renewable Energy is Affordable
The affordability of renewable energy is another common point of contention. To address this, Diesendorf’s team conducted a comprehensive economic analysis, comparing two hypothetical generation systems for 2030: a 100% renewable system and an “efficient” fossil-fueled system. Both scenarios utilized commercially available technologies and met the NEM’s reliability criteria.
Using cost projections from the Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics, the study found that the annual cost of the renewable system was $7-10 billion higher than that of the fossil-fueled alternative. However, this gap could easily be bridged by redirecting the $10 billion in annual subsidies currently propping up Australia’s fossil fuel industry. With sensible government policies, a renewable energy future becomes not only viable but economically practical.
A Path Forward
Diesendorf emphasizes that effective policies are the key to unlocking a renewable energy future. Redirecting subsidies, investing in infrastructure, and overcoming misinformation campaigns will pave the way for a cleaner, safer, and more sustainable energy system.
“The technology is ready, and the economics make sense. All we need now is the political will to make it happen,” he concludes.
The myth of baseload power is fading, replaced by the growing realization that even intermittent renewables can deliver a reliable and affordable energy future. As countries around the world embrace this transition, the question is no longer whether renewables can work, but how quickly we can make them the cornerstone of our energy systems.
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